Research · operator view · build 2026.07.23
Model health &
deployment traceability.
The operator view tracks production model status, source freshness, and current public coverage. Shorelife is a daily forecast product and does not detect intra-day spills.
Production model
xgb-undersample-ensemble-curated-v0
Test AUCPR
0.6966
Test Brier
0.0722
Coverage
175 / 341
51% of California beaches
Public release
Eligible
Spatial backtests
Performance on unobserved counties
spatial beach persistence
AUCPR
0.789
Brier
0.176
15 folds · 11105 samples
spatial county persistence
AUCPR
0.437
Brier
0.184
6 folds · 64598 samples
spatial beach xgb undersample ensemble
AUCPR
0.952
Brier
0.104
15 folds · 11105 samples
spatial county xgb undersample ensemble
AUCPR
0.648
Brier
0.111
6 folds · 64598 samples
spatial beach hist gbm
AUCPR
0.950
Brier
0.106
15 folds · 11105 samples
spatial county hist gbm
AUCPR
0.643
Brier
0.108
6 folds · 64598 samples
spatial beach hist gbm positive persistence guard
AUCPR
0.807
Brier
0.162
15 folds · 11105 samples
spatial county hist gbm positive persistence guard
AUCPR
0.497
Brier
0.175
6 folds · 64598 samples
spatial beach hist gbm persistence blend
AUCPR
0.949
Brier
0.116
15 folds · 11105 samples
spatial county hist gbm persistence blend
AUCPR
0.644
Brier
0.116
6 folds · 64598 samples
Deep dives
Transparency documentation
Labels · Thresholds
Risk Labels
How exceedance probability maps to the four public bands, legal basis, and what the model can and cannot predict.
Provenance · Cadence
Data Sources
The six primary datasets feeding the pipeline — BeachWatch, NDBC, CDIP, Open-Meteo, USGS NWIS, and CEDEN — with freshness status.
AUCPR · Brier · Spatial CV
Calibration
Live production metrics, spatial backtest results, and candidate model registry from the latest CI run.
Scientific artifacts